Understanding SEO Forecasting: What Exactly Is It?

SEO forecasting has been a buzzword in the digital marketing industry in recent years. SEO forecasting is basically a strategic process that involves predicting the future performance of a website’s search engine optimisation (SEO) efforts.

By analysing historical data, current trends, and market conditions, businesses can estimate potential traffic, rankings, and revenue outcomes. This predictive approach helps in setting realistic goals, allocating resources effectively, and making informed decisions about SEO strategies.

Moreover, SEO forecasting allows businesses to anticipate changes in search engine algorithms and adjust their tactics accordingly, thereby ensuring sustained visibility and competitiveness in search engine results pages (SERPs).

Although forecasting for SEO has been a long-time practice in the industry, it seems like many SEO professionals still do not know much about this significant process. This is disadvantageous, considering that SEO forecasting is a crucial component of a comprehensive SEO strategy, helping businesses navigate the dynamic landscape of search engine marketing with confidence and precision.

If you are one of those who have little to no idea about this SEO process, worry not, as this article tackles everything that you need to know about SEO forecasting, including its benefits and common methods.

What is SEO Forecasting?

As discussed earlier, SEO forecasting is a strategic digital marketing process that involves predicting future SEO results by estimating metrics, such as search volume, website traffic, click-through rate (CTR), and return on investment (ROI).

To make these SEO projections and predictions, SEO professionals use first-party data, which reflects historical performance, and third-party data, which considers external trends. Creating an accurate SEO forecast requires more than just guesswork; it involves thorough keyword research, reviewing benchmarks, and analysing search trends to anticipate future traffic.

Basically, SEO forecasting can help your business estimate its revenue. However, since there is no universally accepted method for SEO forecasting and the right method for your purposes largely depends on your metrics, data, and objectives, it remains a complex task with varying opinions on achieving the most accurate results.

That said, although an SEO forecast will never be completely precise, it can guide businesses on where to concentrate their efforts to maximise their marketing strategies.

3 Benefits of SEO Forecasting

It Provides a Competitive Advantage Over Other SEOs

There are numerous benefits that come with forecasting for SEO. However, perhaps the most important advantage of this marketing strategy is that it can provide you with a competitive edge over other SEOs.

Keep in mind that while you and your competitors both have case studies, what can distinguish you from the rest is your ability to connect the dots. Many businesses recognise the value of SEO but may not grasp how clicks convert into revenue.

It is crucial to demonstrate how your strategy can surpass the keyword competitors in a dynamic market and how this can lead to increased revenue. This approach can give you an advantage over other SEOs.

It Gives a Case for More Resources

SEO forecasting helps set expectations, thereby enabling businesses to allocate resources effectively for growth. For instance, if you are on a content team and the social media department wants to hire another person, but your team also needs a content writer, limited resources mean a choice must be made.

However, both departments drive significant traffic — social media through unpaid traffic and your team through organic blog content. If you can demonstrate that increasing blog content production will generate more revenue, your team is more likely to secure the additional resources over the other.

It Enhances Client Relations

Another important benefit of SEO forecasting is that it can strengthen your relations with clients. Earning trust from an employer or client can be challenging, but demonstrating that your actions will likely result in a specific number of new customers makes it easier for stakeholders to have confidence in you.

Trust is further strengthened when you show how these actions contribute to the bigger picture of increased revenue. Additionally, creating an SEO forecast involves stakeholders in your strategy, thereby enhancing communication and relationships with clients.

3 Ways to Forecast SEO Performance

Make Website Performance Estimations

As mentioned earlier, there is no one-size-fits-all method when it comes to forecasting for SEO. However, the quickest way to estimate SEO performance is by using historical website data to predict future outcomes, which is effective if you need a fast estimate and plan to continue your current SEO strategy.

Using a tool like Google Analytics, you can check your total organic search traffic from the past 12 months and compare it to the previous year. The difference can help predict next year’s traffic. For instance, if your site had 125,000 organic visitors last year compared to 100,000 the year before, that is a 25% increase. By multiplying last year’s traffic by 125%, you can estimate over 150,000 organic visitors for the next year.

Take note, however, that this method does not account for competitors, algorithm changes, or seasonality, and it does not reflect any strategic changes you might be planning.

Forecast Search Volume for Keywords

If your SEO strategy involves creating new content for a keyword cluster, historical traffic data will not be very useful. Instead, you should use a method that provides search volume for a group of target keywords.

Utilise an SEO tool to input your keywords and see the predicted search volume for each, then sum up the search volumes. Next, use a search analytics tool to find your website’s average CTR and multiply this percentage by the estimated search volume to predict your website traffic.

For example, with an estimated search volume of 100,000 and an average CTR of 10%, you can expect about 10,000 clicks from search. To refine this further, multiply the predicted traffic by your average conversion rate to estimate the number of conversions. For instance, with a 5% conversion rate, 10,000 visitors would result in 500 conversions.

Come Up with an SEO Forecasting Model

To account for search trends and seasonal changes in user behaviour, you will need a more complex forecasting model, which is highly accurate but technically challenging. While you could code your own model and build a dashboard, it is highly recommended that you just use premade templates like the Search Engine Land forecasting worksheet, Moz forecasting template, or Ahrefs site traffic forecast.

Using premade templates can essentially save you so much time and allow you to focus your energy on refining your marketing strategy instead. Copy any of the available premade templates online to predict your SEO performance, and remember to input data from Google Analytics or other SEO tools, such as Semrush, SE Ranking, and Ahrefs.

Conclusion

Understanding SEO forecasting is crucial for businesses aiming to thrive in the competitive digital landscape. It provides a clear, data-driven vision of future SEO performance, enabling companies to set realistic goals and allocate resources efficiently. By anticipating changes in search engine algorithms and market trends, businesses can adapt their strategies proactively, maintaining their visibility and competitiveness in SERPs.

Moreover, SEO forecasting helps identify high-impact opportunities and potential pitfalls, guiding continuous optimisation efforts. This foresight not only maximises ROI but also ensures that marketing efforts are aligned with long-term business objectives. In essence, forecasting for SEO empowers businesses to make informed decisions, stay ahead of competitors, and achieve sustainable growth in their online presence.

 

References
https://www.semrush.com/blog/seo-forecasting/
https://hawksem.com/blog/seo-forecasting/
https://ahrefs.com/blog/seo-forecasting/